Day: February 19, 2026

3/ Putin is resorting to preparations for further involuntary reserve call-ups from a place of weakness, as Russia is likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near exhaustion of its expensive voluntary recruitment system in 2026.

ISW assessed in February 2025 that the high personnel, economic, and societal costs of Russia’s war would force the Kremlin to make difficult choices about. The Kremlin’s efforts to prepare Russian society for more partial reserve callups suggest that Putin is now grappling with these difficult choices in February 2026, four years into the war, as ISW previously forecasted. The Kremlin is likely pushing for Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s long-held demands in ongoing peace negotiations imminently to secure its war aims without having to make uncomfortable sacrifices to do so.

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Feb 19, 2026

MORE: Putin is likely setting informational conditions to restart limited, rolling involuntary reserve call-ups as Russia appears to be struggling to replace its losses in Ukraine with existing force generation mechanisms.

Putin likely aims to use these limited call-ups to maintain Russia’s loss rates and the current tempo of offensive operations — not to significantly build up the Russian force grouping fighting in Ukraine and flood the front with more forces.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Ukrainian, US, and Russian representatives concluded trilateral and multilateral negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 18.

Other Key Takeaways:

Ukraine continues to offer significant concessions to advance the peace negotiations process, including compromising on territorial concessions.
Russian officials signaled that Russia would not be satisfied with just territorial concessions and reiterated commitment to Russia’s original war goals, which include dismantling the NATO alliance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely setting informational conditions to restart limited, rolling involuntary reserve call-ups as Russia appears to be struggling to replace its losses in Ukraine with existing force generation mechanisms.

Putin likely aims to use these limited call-ups to maintain Russia’s loss rates and the current tempo of offensive operations — not to significantly build up the Russian force grouping fighting in Ukraine and flood the front with more forces.

The Kremlin has been setting conditions to allow it to conduct a rolling, involuntary reserve call-up since at least October 2025.

Putin is resorting to preparations for further involuntary reserve call-ups from a place of weakness, as Russia is likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near exhaustion of its expensive voluntary recruitment system in 2026.

The Kremlin is likely pushing for Ukraine to capitulate to Russia’s long-held demands in ongoing peace negotiations imminently to secure its war aims without having to make uncomfortable sacrifices to do so.

Russian officials’ messaging about the recent throttling of Telegram remains disjointed as the Kremlin attempts to navigate the repeated backlash the restrictions have generated among Russian milbloggers.

The Kremlin is looking for new excuses to justify its intensified Telegram censorship campaign.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and near Velykyi Burluk.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2024339593051431228

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Feb 19, 2026

2/ The Kremlin has been setting conditions to allow it to conduct a rolling, involuntary reserve call-up since at least October 2025.  x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1…Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat, allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine.

The Russian government approved on October 13 a draft law that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed stipulating that servicemembers of the Russian mobilization reserve can perform defensive tasks during armed conflicts, counter-terrorist operations, or deployments outside Russian territory.

The law proposes that the Russian president can call up reservists for special training lasting up to two months. An explanatory note to the law states that the changes will allow Russia to deploy reservists during peacetime, expanding the current legislation that only allows Russia to deploy reservists during mobilization or wartime. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov stated on October 13 that the law will allow the Kremlin to deploy reservists outside of Russian territory, including to Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.

ISW will review the significance of this draft law in an upcoming warning update publication.

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

European officials continue to note how Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.

The Kremlin appears to be changing tactics within its reflexive control campaign to deter the United States from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, likely due to recent reporting that the United States has been sharing intelligence to help Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.

The Kremlin is reportedly preparing to manipulate voters by dismissing unpopular government officials ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections.

Ukrainian forces recently struck Russian oil infrastructure in occupied Crimea on the night of October 12 to 13.

Select Russian industries are showing signs of steep decline that risk lasting damage with potentially deep socio-economic repercussions.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1977901868341985737

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Feb 19, 2026