Day: February 24, 2026

MORE: The Kremlin is attempting to divert attention on the anniversary away from the Russian military’s inability to achieve Putin’s objectives. Kremlin officials largely avoided acknowledging the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A few Russian officials made boilerplate remarks, including about the war’s alleged “root causes,” the need for Ukraine’s “demilitarization” and “denazification,” and Russia’s unwavering commitment to achieving its original objectives, but Russian officials clearly felt that they had little good news or causes for optimism to share with the Russian people. Kremlin officials focused instead on a baseless claim by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) that the United Kingdom (UK) and France are attempting to transfer a “dirty bomb” or nuclear weapon and delivery systems to Ukraine. Senior Russian officials amplified the SVR’s claim in what ISW assesses was a coordinated information effort designed to elevate nuclear escalation rhetoric and divert attention away from the war anniversary.

– The Kremlin is using the SVR claims to relitigate its justifications for the war that it initiated, which has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s participation in World War II without accomplishing any of the Kremlin’s original aims.

– Russia is also using the SVR’s claim as an excuse to threaten the UK and France with potential nuclear strikes, likely in order to disrupt ongoing discussions about Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

– The Kremlin may additionally be planning to blame Ukraine for a Russian-generated radiological incident in Ukraine, possibly to convince the West to abandon Ukraine or as a further attempt to break Ukrainian will to continue to resist.

– The SVR claim is also part of a wider Kremlin effort to justify future limited involuntary reserve callups, which are likely to be highly unpopular at home.

Putin’s preparation for limited, rolling callups and further internet and censorship restrictions are coming from a place of Russian weakness. Putin’s confidence in his ability to demand more sacrifices from his people without political repercussions is apparently waning, particularly as he protracts the war in Ukraine into its fifth year, yet remains far from achieving the strategic objectives for which he started the war in 2022.

Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Slovyansk.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The fifth year of Russia’s invasion is not beginning well for Moscow. Recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield disprove Russian claims that things can only get worse for Ukraine the longer Kyiv delays surrendering to Russian demands. ⬇️(1/2)

Events on the battlefield refute Moscow’s claims that a Russian battlefield victory is inevitable and that Ukraine should surrender to Russia’s demands before its position deteriorates further. The Russians will likely recover and adapt, and the lines will continue to shift in either direction as each side gains a temporary advantage, but one thing should be clear: Russia has not secured a permanent edge that will simply allow Russian forces to continue advancing unchecked the longer the war goes on.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year with Russia having failed to achieve any of its original war aims and facing setbacks on the battlefield amid mounting casualties. Russia’s challenges on and off the battlefield are forcing Kremlin leadership to make difficult decisions to sustain its war effort, as ISW has long forecasted that it would have to do.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2026510800798486641

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Feb 25, 2026