Day: February 18, 2026

Protests in Iran: Some Iranians held anti-regime protests on February 17 despite the regime’s recent brutal crackdown on protesters, which highlights how some parts of the Iranian population remain extremely frustrated and disillusioned with the regime.

CTP-ISW recorded 12 protests across seven provinces on February 17 during ceremonies marking the end of the 40-day mourning period for protesters killed on January 8. The 40th day of mourning marks the end of the initial mourning period and is often observed with public commemorations and gatherings in Shia Islam.

CTP-ISW recorded one instance of Iranian security forces shooting at memorial participants who were chanting an anti-regime slogan in Abdanan, Ilam Province. Iranian security forces pressured a family to cancel its 40-day memorial in Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province, which highlights the regime’s concern that memorials honoring killed protesters can transform into anti-regime protests. Shopkeepers in Ilam Province also closed their shops in solidarity with those mourning the killing of protesters. Protest activity peaked on January 8 and 9. Iranian Health Ministry officials previously told TIME Magazine that security forces may have killed over 30,000 protesters on January 8 and 9 alone.

The protests on February 17 highlight how the regime’s repression of its population creates greater disaffection and anger toward the regime, which can, in turn, set conditions for further anti-regime activity.

CTP-ISW previously assessed on January 15 that the regime had suppressed the recent protest movement, but that protests could resume if the regime eases its securitization measures, and because the regime has not addressed the underlying grievances that triggered the recent protest movement.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the United States’ demands for Iran to halt uranium enrichment and limit its ballistic missile program in a speech on February 17. Khamenei’s speech coincided with the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva, Switzerland. Iran has presented several proposals to the United States that do not meet the United States’ demand for zero enrichment. Iran seeks significant economic relief in return for the limited nuclear concessions it has offered to make. 

Other Key Takeaways:

Some Iranians held anti-regime protests on February 17 despite the regime’s recent brutal crackdown on protesters, which highlights how some parts of the Iranian population remain extremely frustrated and disillusioned with the regime.

Iranian security forces conducted a targeted raid in Chenar town, Asadabad District, Hamedan Province, on February 16, likely to preempt or disrupt some kind of anti-regime activity. The limited scope of the raid suggests that security forces were targeting a specific individual, network, or infrastructure in the town linked to anti-regime activity.

Most of the Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework has agreed to rescind State of Law Coalition head and former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s nomination as prime minister designate if Maliki does not voluntarily withdraw his nomination in order to avoid US sanctions, according to a senior framework political adviser speaking to an Iraqi journalist on February 16. Maliki’s insistence on the premiership will probably force the framework to revoke his nomination.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani continues to vie for the premiership. It remains unlikely that the framework will select him, given many framework members’ long-standing objections to Sudani. Unspecified individuals close to Sudani suggested to Iraqi media on February 16 that Sudani’s control of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias is a “trump card.” This statement could reflect an effort by Sudani to use his purported control over the militias to gain US support for him to become prime minister amid US objections to Maliki.

The Syrian government transferred some authorities from the central government to governors and local officials on February 15, which may satisfy some of the Syrian Democratic Forces’ demands regarding decentralization.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2023952837395226908

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Feb 18, 2026

U.S. Navy Ford class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) has turned on their AIS as they approach the Strait of Gibraltar. Once the strait transit is complete, at an average speed of 20kts, they will arrive in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in about 4 days.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) Feb 18, 2026