Ukraine is currently executing highly successful mid-range and deep-strike campaigns, while almost stalling Russian advances on the front.
However, we must guard against the dangerous illusion that this war is nearing an early conclusion, because the reality is that it is highly likely to drag on for years to come.
While it is true that Russia is facing mounting difficulties, its current situation is nowhere near desperate enough to force Vladimir Putin to abandon his core strategic objectives. Moscow has shown absolutely zero willingness to negotiate, and the Kremlin still possesses a variety of cards left to play.
On the economic side, even though Russia is struggling, Putin can still extract more support from Xi Jinping, given that China is deeply invested in preventing a Russian defeat. Furthermore, the Russian state can still aggressively raise domestic taxes, nationalize the immense wealth of some of its oligarchs, and squeeze its internal resources to sustain the war machine.
On the military front, they still retain the capacity to mobilize additional waves of troops and launch entirely new offensives from unexpected directions.
This is exactly why Europe must dramatically scale up its commitment. The much-discussed 90 billion euro European aid package over the next two years sounds impressive on paper, but because it is split between military and critical economic aid, it falls short of what is actually required for the military.
We need to shift our focus away from the superficial announcements and polished optics of the NATO summit and redirect our energy toward immediate, tangible support. European nations must inject billions of euros into Ukrainian drones, cruise missiles, and interceptors right now, rather than waiting for months. Maximizing funding for Ukraine’s strike campaigns today is the only way to systematically deplete Russia’s remaining resources and ultimately bring this war to a faster end
— @joni_askola Jul 4, 2026
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