Day: July 17, 2026

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia is fighting a war it funds with oil money, but it’s running out of fuel…

Ukraine has knocked out 1/4 to 1/3 of Russian refinery capacity through drone strikes, and the Iran war has made everything much worse.

Russia cannot simply import its way out of this.

It lacks the specialized oil docking infrastructure to receive large fuel shipments, and the same engineers who would build that infrastructure are busy repairing what Ukraine keeps destroying.

The Crimean Bridge has been effectively closed to large fuel transports out of fear that Ukraine will use a small drone to cause a very large explosion.

Here is the detail that most people are missing: the price of crude oil right now is almost irrelevant.

What matters is the crack spread, the difference between the cost of crude and the cost of refined gasoline.

And there is a political dimension to fuel shortages that makes them uniquely dangerous for autocrats.

High gas prices are posted publicly at EVERY station, everyone sees them, everyone knows everyone else sees them, and that shared visibility destroys the illusion that keeps authoritarian governments stable.

Putin can retract a mobilization order, but he cannot conjure fuel from thin air.

This is the worst crisis the Kremlin has faced since the start of the invasion, and there’s no easy way out.

Source: William Spaniel (YT) / Writer: Michael

— @MarioNawfal Jul 17, 2026