Day: May 4, 2026

Two main developments caught my attention over the past week: Ukraine’s continued long-range strikes, which are now systematically reaching deep into Russian territory and have even prompted official reactions from Russian authorities; and Ukraine’s innovations to counter ballistic threats.

According to reports, a Ukrainian-made electronic warfare system is capable of jamming Russia’s Kinzhal missiles. If confirmed, this would mark a significant step toward Ukraine’s increasing self-reliance and a reduction in its dependence on capabilities provided by partners.

In this edition:

• Ukraine Continues Long-Range Strikes against Russia as Part of Asymmetric Warfare;

• Ukrainian EW Reportedly Jams Russian Ballistic Missiles;

• Private Air Defence in Ukraine: New Results;

• How Accurate Are Flamingo Missiles?

• and additional developments in Ukraine and Russia.

Last week, I was interviewed by France24 on the recent drone developments in Ukraine and Russia. Here is my comment:

I also had the pleasure of discussing the importance of drones for Canada with one of the country’s leading journalists and top-tier Substack writers, Paul Wells: The Q&A: “The human may not be able to make decisions at the speed modern war requires”.

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Ukraine Continues Long-Range Strikes against Russia as Part of Asymmetric Warfare

Over the week, Ukrainian drone attacks targeted the Russian port of Tuapse on the Black Sea four times. It has been serving as a primary point for Russia’s oil exports. As a result, hundreds of tons of oil leaked from the facility, turning the city and the shore into a contaminated disaster area.

Putin commented on Ukrainian strikes on Tuapse, stating that “there are no serious threats.” However, the latest attack resulted in an oil spill directly within the city.

On April 25, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk Oblast, and Chelyabinsk City — around 1,600 to 1,700 kilometers from the international border. Since the drones were launched from positions far from the border, their effective range was even greater. Russian propagandists have been complaining that during 10 hours of flight, the drones did not encounter a single instance of air defence activity. TASS claimed that Ukrainian forces may have used an FP-1 long-range drone launched from Kharkiv Oblast in the strike against Yekaterinburg.

RF Security Council Secretary Shoigu said that Ukrainian airstrikes against “infrastructure” across all Russian federal subjects increased almost fourfold in 2025 to 23,000, up from 6,200 in 2024. He further stated that Ukrainian forces have gained the ability to conduct airstrikes against targets in the Ural region and that the region is now in the “immediate threat zone.” According to him, not one region of Russia can feel safe.

According to ISW, these statements may be part of an information-space condition-setting effort aimed at highlighting that the war’s impact affects all of Russia, rather than just border regions near the frontline, potentially to justify future rolling mobilization and continued broad internet shutdowns.

In March, Ukrainian forces prioritized targeting Russia’s air defence assets. Over the first two weeks of March, Ukraine destroyed more than 20 Russian assets, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, and Buk systems, as well as rare enemy radars. The apparent intention of the Ukrainian command was to create a “corridor” in Russia’s radar coverage, enabling long-range missiles and UAVs to penetrate deeper into Russian territory. Read my coverage here.

As of May, Ukraine continues this campaign, targeting and destroying advanced air defence systems and radar stations across occupied territories, including Pantsir and Tor complexes.

In several regions of Russia, authorities are cancelling or significantly scaling back military parades marking May 9 (Victory Day in Russia) due to the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes. Long-range S-400 systems are being deployed to Moscow, likely intended to protect the Red Square parade. The Kremlin has reportedly decided—for the first time in many years—not to display military equipment at this year’s event.

In this context, it is important to remember that Ukraine is fighting this war using asymmetric methods. While Russia possesses significantly greater financial, military, and human resources to sustain the war for years, Ukraine’s response lies in defence innovation, a decentralized approach to decision-making, and creativity in military tactics.

As Ukrainian philosopher Volodymyr Yermolenko puts it, “In conventional confrontation, you look for the opponent’s weak points and strike them. In asymmetric warfare, you do the opposite: you identify the opponent’s strengths and try to turn them against them.

The highest level is when you transform the opponent’s essential strength into their weakness. That is, when the opponent comes to see not some accidental or superficial trait, but their very nature—their inner essence, who they are at their core—as their main vulnerability.

We should not forget that Russia is waging this kind of asymmetric war against us—and against all democracies as well. Its goal is to turn the main strength of democracies into their weakness: to direct democracy against itself, to force the very strengths of freedom to begin destroying it from within.”

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Ukrainian EW Reportedly Jams Russian Ballistic Missiles

A Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) system, Lima, is reportedly downing Russia’s Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles through cyberattacks on satellite navigation. Since last summer, Lima has neutralized 58 out of 59 missiles.