Day: April 19, 2026

MORE: Incomplete reporting about the damage that the US-Israeli combined force inflicted on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs precludes the development of a quantitative assessment about the threat that Iranian missiles and drones still pose.

Multiple US officials told the New York Times on April 19 that Iran retains around 40 percent of its attack drones, around 60 percent of its missile launchers, and around 70 percent of its missile stockpile. The officials stated that the 60 percent of missile launchers includes around 100 launchers that Iran has dug out from underground facilities since the ceasefire went into effect. ISW-CTP previously assessed that Iran is exploiting the ceasefire to reorganize and regenerate its ballistic missile forces on a tactical level, including by clearing debris from tunnel entrances to retrieve missile launchers from underground missile bases.

The recent assessments about Iran’s remaining offensive capacities do not specify whether the launchers that Iran has dug out from underground facilities are intact or operational. Shockwaves from combined force strikes may have damaged launchers stored in underground facilities without directly hitting them. The recent assessments also do not specify what kinds of launchers Iran has retrieved. Iran possesses different kinds of launchers for ballistic missiles with different ranges. These gaps preclude the development of a quantitative assessment of the current status of Iran’s missile program.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Any US settlement or resolution of the conflict that enables Iran to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would represent a major US defeat and set a precedent with critical implications for global trade, given the strait’s role as a critical energy chokepoint. Any US acceptance of Iran’s ability to regulate transit would undermine the principle of freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and enable Iran to condition access to the strait on compliance with its demands, thereby enabling Tehran to exert persistent pressure on the global economy and the United States and its allies.

Iran is attempting to establish a protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz by granting priority transit to vessels that pay fees and comply with Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) protocols as part of its effort to try to consolidate control over the strait. Iran has also continued to prevent non-Iranian-linked vessels from transiting the strait.

US forces seized an Iranian-flagged container ship for the first time during the war. Commercially available shipping data indicates that the US Navy also forced at least three Iranian or Iranian-linked ships to change course toward Iranian ports on April 19.

US Vice President JD Vance, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, to engage in negotiations with Iran on April 21. ISW-CTP has not observed any Iranian sources confirming Iran’s participation in the negotiations as of 6:00 PM ET on April 19, however.

Incomplete reporting about the damage that the US-Israeli combined force inflicted on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs precludes the development of a quantitative assessment about the threat that Iranian missiles and drones still pose.

A statement released by Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah on April 18 appears to confirm that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani discussed preparations for renewed conflict with the United States and Israel during his meetings with Iraqi militia leaders in Baghdad on April 18. Ghaani may have specifically discussed enhancing coordination between Iraqi militias and other Axis of Resistance groups against the United States, Israel, and the Gulf states in the event of renewed conflict.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2046014679021916442

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Apr 20, 2026

USMA reach Confederation Cup final after violence-marred clash with Safi  reut.rs/4tQEkHU  reut.rs/4tQEkHU

— Reuters (@Reuters) Apr 20, 2026

FANDEMONIUM IN BUFFALO.Sportsnet (@Sportsnet)Buffalo was LOUD for that W!! 😮‍💨
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  —  https://x.com/Sportsnet/status/2046056050692849745

— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) Apr 20, 2026

Angels activate OF/DH Jorge Soler from four-game suspension  reut.rs/4tSaBhJ  reut.rs/4tSaBhJ

— Reuters (@Reuters) Apr 20, 2026

The U.S. military said it fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship as the vessel sailed toward Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. Iran’s military said the ship had been traveling from China.
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— Reuters (@Reuters) Apr 20, 2026

Guardiola says Arsenal still in control, but victory gives them hope  reut.rs/48dfXMi  reut.rs/48dfXMi

— Reuters (@Reuters) Apr 20, 2026

Title race starts now, says defiant Arsenal boss Arteta  reut.rs/41F1xAX  reut.rs/41F1xAX

— Reuters (@Reuters) Apr 20, 2026

Ukraine launched a massive drone swarm attack against the oil terminal in the Russia’s Black Sea Port of Tuapse tonight

Massive fires have broken out across the terminal after several oil tanks and other oil infrastructure were hit

Russia has major problems exporting oil by sea
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— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) Apr 20, 2026