March 12, 2026 - October Surprise 2016 - octobersurprise2016.org

NEW | Evening Iran Update: Six Key Takeaways ⬇️

1. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on March 12 after the Assembly of Experts selected him as the new supreme leader on March 8. Khamenei reaffirmed the regime’s commitment to Iran’s war effort in order to achieve Iran’s long-standing objectives, including the erosion and eventual expulsion of American influence from the Middle East and the destruction of the Israeli state.

2. An Iranian-linked hacker group conducted a cyberattack on a US healthcare company on March 11, which is likely part of an Iranian effort to target the US healthcare system in order to impose political pressure on the US administration. Iran has undertaken a similar effort to impose political pressure on the United States by striking oil infrastructure in the region and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

3. The US and Israeli combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security and military sites across Iran. CTP-ISW has observed strikes in ten provinces since 8:00 AM ET on March 12.

4. Anti-regime media reported that the Iranian armed forces are facing deepening fractures between the Artesh and the IRGC amid severe supply shortages, citing unspecified informed sources. Some Western media reports have indicated that there are no signs of mass defections within the Iranian armed forces or fractures within the regime yet, however.

5. Recent US Central Command (CENTCOM) operations are attempting to limit Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said on March 12 that it has destroyed over 30 Iranian minelaying ships and that it has targeted naval mine warehouses and manufacturing facilities across Iran.

6. Hezbollah appears to be relying more heavily on drones to attack IDF forces and positions. Hezbollah’s reliance on drones is notable given that Hezbollah did not heavily rely on drones during the October 7 War.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW | Iran Update Morning, March 12, 2026 ⬇️(1/2)

US and Israeli Air Campaign: The US and Israeli combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security, defense industrial, and military targets across Iran. ISW-CTP has observed strikes in 11 provinces since 3:00 PM ET on March 11.

Iranian Retaliation: Iran is continuing to target commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to disrupt maritime traffic and threaten freedom of navigation. Suspected improvised Iranian unmanned surface vessels (USV) hit the US-owned Marshall Islands-flagged SAFESEA VISHNU and the Malta-flagged ZEFYROS off the coast of Basra, Iraq, overnight on March 11 and 12.

The IRGC claimed several attacks targeting US and Israeli bases in the region. ISW-CTP has not observed any evidence on impacts on US or Israeli bases at the time of this writing.

Iran continued to attack the Gulf States and Israel. Iran launched projectiles targeting civilian and oil infrastructure in the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

Israeli Campaign Against Hezbollah and Hezbollah Response: Hezbollah has claimed 27 attacks targeting IDF forces and positions in northern Israel since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 11. Hezbollah’s 27 claimed attacks mark the highest number of attacks claimed by Hezbollah in an 18-hour period that ISW-CTP has observed since the start of the conflict.

The IDF is preparing to expand its ground activity in southern Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Katz and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the IDF to prepare for an “expansion of IDF activity in Lebanon.”— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2032185024469221446

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Mar 13, 2026