Russian agents, who present themselves as “great lovers of Armenia” and “great military-patriots” speak about “national values” and exploit public security concerns to derail the establishment of peace.
They take advantage of the fact that the November 9, 2020 statement came as a shock and was unexpected for the Armenian public. Indeed, many people knew during those days that the war was not unfolding according to Armenian scenario, but the signing of the November 9 statement had an unexpected effect. It indeed entailed serious concessions – territories that Azerbaijan had not even captured were to be handed over.
I believe that the Pashinyan government made a serious mistake by not preparing public opinion in advance for such a scenario. And this led to a serious domestic political explosion. Public trust in the government was undermined, something the agents are now exploiting to sow distrust toward Pashinyan’s every move and portray them as “selling out Armenia’s interests.”
I am not a supporter of Pashinyan, and I see mistakes that could have been avoided. However, the failure of November 9 is being heavily manipulated today to block the possibility of establishing peace altogether.
Today, although the 17 points of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan have been agreed upon and many of its provisions have been made public, once again – by exploiting the “wound of November 9” – the document is being labeled as one that “will lead to Armenia’s destruction.” I will not claim that all 17 points fully serve Armenia’s interests.
There is a plausible scenario in which this agreement meets the same fate as the November 9 statement, where Baku and Yerevan interpret its clauses differently and it becomes a source of escalation. I do not rule out negative scenarios. But why is the Russian agent network waging such an aggressive disinformation campaign against a possible document with Azerbaijan and the establishment of peace?
By the way, I am not claiming that all critics serve Russia’s interests – there are serious experts who raise rational concerns. This is not about them.
The problem is that signing a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and establishing institutional peace will bring an end to Russia’s military-political influence in the South Caucasus. There is a view that the alleged terror plot uncovered by Armenian law enforcement was also intended to prevent the signing of the agreement.
It is a fact that the members of that group spoke extremely negatively about border delimitation and the current state of relations with Azerbaijan. I don’t have evidence that they were following direct instructions from Moscow. However, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, who is now under arrest, publicly stated that representatives of foreign structures had contacted him and urged him to change the government in Armenia in order to protect national values. Was that foreign organization based in Russia? That is a philosophical and rhetorical question. I don’t know.
But I am convinced that Russia is capable of carrying out terrorist acts, even assassinating the leaders of countries. Armenia is in a difficult situation today. On one hand, it is forced to withstand the blows of a hybrid war being waged by Russia, and on the other hand, Azerbaijan is delaying the signing of the agreement with artificial demands – giving Russia time to strike Armenia and obstruct the signing. If Azerbaijan acts wisely, it will abandon these additional demands and the agreement will be signed quickly, not allowing Moscow to weaken the Armenian side.
If a government change occurs, Russia will instrumentalize the new pro-Russian authorities in Armenia against Azerbaijan and will provoke continuous wars. It is unknown – Russia might even supply tens of billions worth of weapons to pro-Russian forces. Does Azerbaijan want this?
By the way, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a Russian-Armenian businessman decided to enter politics in Armenia. The Kremlin already has successful experience in bringing pro-Russian businessmen to power in various countries. These businessmen have made most of their capital in Russia, are dependent on Moscow, and if they refuse to carry out the Kremlin’s instructions, they risk losing that capital.
Russia will employ all its tools to orchestrate regime change in Armenia, dethrone Pashinyan, and bring a pro-Russian force to power. Most likely, that pro-Russian force will be ultra-militaristic and patriotic, which will cancel the document currently being negotiated with Azerbaijan, adopt a radically tough stance, and become a tool in the Kremlin’s hands to continue the conflict.
Azerbaijan must make a choice – does it stand with Russia and continued conflict, or with regional peace and cooperation?