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October Surprise 2016

New in SpyWeek: Moscow Massacre

Worries mount that Muck’s blunt style poses a security risk to his management of a new classified DoD spy satellite program? (Spin photo)

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Welcome to SpyWeek, our weekly newsletter, where we look at news from the intersection of intelligence, foreign policy, and military operations.

Duty to Warn: U.S. intelligence warnings about a terrorist attack in Moscow that Russia dismissed proved accurate when gunmen opened fire at a concert venue on the outskirts of Moscow on Friday night, killing at least 40 people and wounding more than 100. 

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack on Crocus City Hall in a short statement published by ISIS-affiliated news agency Amaq on Telegram on Friday.  U.S. officials confirmed the claim. 

The U.S. Embassy in Moscow warned on March 7 that “extremists” had “imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts.”  U.S. citizens were advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours. U.S. officials said they also briefed Russian officials in private about the intelligence pointing to an impending attack. 

Recent intelligence reporting indicated that Islamic State-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, a branch of the group that operated in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, was active inside Russia, two U.S. officials told The Washington Post

The attack, which unfolded before a scheduled rock concert, represents a massive security failure by the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly dismissed U.S. warnings about an imminent attack on “large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts” as “obvious blackmail” made with “the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society.”

U.S. intelligence has a duty to warn regarding threats to specific individuals or groups of intentional killing, serious bodily injury, and kidnapping. U.S. officials followed that policy when it secretly provided Iran with “actionable intelligence” about ISIS-K’s plans to carry out a terrorist attack. An attack on Jan. 3 in Kerman, Iran, killed more than 80 people. In December 2019, Putin thanked President Trump for sharing intelligence that helped the Kremlin thwart a plot in  St. Petersburg.

Classified Leaks and Extremism: In the latest report of secrets leaking from U.S. military installations via social media, an active duty member of the Air Force active in a group for online extremists posted classified information he likely obtained from the National Security Agency.

Airman Jason T. Gray, sentenced last month to five years in prison, participated in several channels on the social media site Discord for online extremists known as the “Boogaloo Bois,” according to a 2022 FBI affidavit obtained by The Daily Beast. The affidavit was unsealed by a judge earlier this month.

While searching Gray’s Discord account, investigators found an image that appeared to be classified and was likely obtained from NSA intelligence. Gray, 28, was assigned to the 301st Intelligence Squadron with duty at the National Security Agency’s facility in Anchorage, Alaska, located at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson.

“Based on Gray utilizing Discord to communicate with other Boogaloo members, there is potential the image shared was in furtherance of the Boogaloo ideology,” an agent with the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force wrote. Adherents of the loosely organized, anti-government movement say they are planning for or seek to incite a civil war or revolution they call the Boogaloo, the FBI says.

Gray is part of a troubling trend in the U.S. intelligence community. SpyTalk’s Jeff Stein was the first to report on how classified chat rooms used by intelligence personnel in various agencies, including the NSA, had become a “dumpster fire” of hate speech around 2019, during the Trump administration.

Extremists in the military remain a persistent natsec threat

The desire to impress strangers on Discord also motivated Jack Teixeira, a 22-year-old active duty airman in Massachusetts, who leaked top-secret documents on Discord. Teixeira has agreed to plead guilty to six counts he faced under the Espionage Act and faces 16 years in prison.

Gray, 28, admitted to creating the “CNN Journalist Support Group,” a private Facebook page for the Boogaloo movement, because he was frustrated with his transfer to Alaska. 


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