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October Surprise 2016

Is this situation after the Timur Ivanov’s arrest a retaliation by Kadyrov for his possible poisoning?

https://t.co/vCfz0P40Uz
The arrest of Timur Ivanov was just a signal, a thunder. The real storm is coming soon.
Polarization and conflict; Shoigu’s (and his power base) replacements look increasingly likely.
Dyumin, Zolotov, Wagner Group, the Chechens vs Shoigu, Gerasimov,…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) May 4, 2024

See also: Putin 

Questions: 

To what extent does this conflict reflect the earlier conflict between Ramzan Kadyrov vs the Shoigu’s MOD and other power structures (e.g. MInt.A)? In other words, is this situation after the Timur Ivanov’s arrest a retaliation by Kadyrov for his possible poisoning – by whom (the GRU?)? 
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