April, 2026 - October Surprise 2016 - octobersurprise2016.org

Iranian Response: Iran has slightly altered its strike packages to include more cruise missiles. Iran has previously not used cruise missiles at the rate it did on April 5, but it is unclear whether this represents experimentation with new tactics, an effort to manage the remaining missile reserves, or something else. Iran launched four cruise missiles at Kuwait, two at Qatar, and one each at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.

Iran has launched at least five missiles targeting Israel since ISW-CTP’s last data cut off on April 4. An Israeli military correspondent reported on April 5 that an Iranian ballistic missile hit an open area in Neot Hovav Industrial Zone, southern Israel. An Iranian missile also directly hit a residential building in Haifa on April 5, causing extensive damage to the building and seriously wounding one person.

The IRGC claimed on April 5 that it targeted “US-linked oil and gas infrastructure” in the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Falling debris from a missile interception ignited three fires at a Borouge company petrochemicals plant in al Ruwais, UAE, on April 5. Debris from intercepted Iranian projectiles also hit an unspecified container vessel at the Khor Fakkan Port, Sharjah Emirate, igniting a fire and injuring four crew members. Iranian drones hit several Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (GPIC) units in Sitra, Bahrain, according to Bahrani state media on April 5. An Iranian drone separately struck a Bahrain Petroleum Company (BAPCO) storage tank in Sitra on April 5, igniting a fire. Iran previously struck the refinery on March 5. The Kuwaiti Defense Ministry also said on April 5 that Iranian drones hit two power generation and water desalination facilities, a Kuwaiti Ministries Complex building, an Oil Ministry building, and several Kuwait Petroleum Corporation-affiliated “operational facilities.”

A top Iranian official suggested that the Axis of Resistance will threaten shipping in the Bab al Mandeb. This statement is probably designed to deter future US action.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: US President Donald Trump appears to have extended the deadline for Iran to stop attacking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to 8:00 PM ET on April 7 amid discussions with Iranian officials. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on April 5 that Iran would continue attacking shipping through the Strait, however.

More Key Takeaways:
US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that US forces on April 4 completed the rescue of both F-15E crewmembers after Iran shot down their aircraft on April 2 during a combat mission.

US forces successfully established a makeshift airstrip very close to a major Iranian city, successfully extracted all of its personnel during the rescue operation, and the combined force has continued to strike targets in Iran.

The combined force has continued to strike operational components of the program even as it targets production facilities for engines, guidance systems, and other components and research and development facilities, including a missile launcher reportedly for a Haj Qassem missile, which has a maximum range of 1,400 km.

The IDF is continuing to target Iranian tunnel entrances to prevent Iranian forces from using tunnels to conceal missile sites.

Iran has slightly altered its strike packages targeting Gulf states to include more cruise missiles, but it is unclear whether this represents experimentation with new tactics, an effort to manage the remaining missile reserves, or something else.

Hezbollah published footage on April 4 and 5 that Hezbollah claimed shows first-person view (FPV) drone attacks conducted on March 25 against an Israeli vehicle and two Israeli Merkava tanks in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah claimed to have launched anti-ship cruise missiles at an Israeli warship located 68 nautical miles off the coast of Lebanon on April 5 for the first time since the start of the war.

The IDF estimated that Hezbollah can maintain a fire rate of 200 rockets and drone launches per day at Israel for an additional five months. Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks do not appear to be achieving the desired effect of altering Israel’s decision-making in conducting airstrikes against Iran, however.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are attempting to blame Kuwait for attacks on Iraqi oil infrastructure, likely to obfuscate responsibility for these attacks to a domestic Iraqi audience. (1/2)— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2040965512469926252

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Apr 6, 2026

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