Day: March 1, 2026

2/ Iran Update Evening Special Report, February 28, 2026:  isw.pub/IranUpdate022826_PM_…

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Mar 1, 2026

NEW: The combined US-Israeli force killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and it is unclear who is currently ruling Iran. US President Donald Trump confirmed on February 28 that Khamenei was killed. The Iranian constitution stipulates that the President, the Judiciary Chief, and a member of the Guardian Council will take over the responsibilities of the Supreme Leader until Iran’s Assembly of Experts convenes to select a new leader. Khamenei was reportedly making plans prior to the current conflict for who he wanted to rule Iran in the event of his death, however.

The combined force conducted nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours of its campaign, according to an unspecified US official speaking to Fox News. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it struck 500 Iranian targets. The regime’s internet shutdown has almost certainly limited the amount of information about US and Israeli strikes coming out of Iran. ISW-CTP’s strike data, therefore, only reflects a portion of the total amount of US and Israeli strikes.

The United States and Israel are pursuing several lines of effort to achieve their stated campaign objectives: 1) suppressing Iranian air defenses, 2) degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities, and 3) disrupting Iranian command-and-control.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that Iran’s retaliation in response to the joint US-Israeli air campaign has not inflicted US casualties or caused meaningful damage to US military installations used to conduct offensive operations against Iran. CENTCOM said that US forces have successfully defended against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Iran has not attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz at the time of this writing, despite warning vessels against transiting through the strait. A European Union official told Reuters on February 28 that the IRGC warned vessels transiting through the strait that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.” ISW-CTP has not observed any reports of Iranian naval forces taking kinetic measures to harass or attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Several members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have condemned the US and Israeli strikes in Iran but have not conducted retaliatory attacks as of ISW-CTP’s 04:00 PM ET data cutoff. These Axis of Resistance members could decide at any time to attack the United States or Israel in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however.

The Islamic Resistance of Iraq, which is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, claimed on February 24 that it conducted 16 unspecified “operations” with “dozens” of drones targeting “enemy” bases in Iraq and the region. The Iraqi Joint Operations Command also reported on February 28 that Iraqi air defenses intercepted nine drones that unspecified actors launched at Iraqi military sites in Dhi Qar and Basra provinces. No group has claimed responsibility for these attacks at the time of this writing.

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Mar 1, 2026

#OpEd Putin’s ambivalence toward Stalin seems part of a strategy to stop Russians drawing parallels between their country’s past and present, writes
@drpollyjones.
themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/2…

— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) Mar 1, 2026

BREAKING:

99-year-old Iranian Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi has declared jihad against the United States and Israel.

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) Mar 1, 2026

BREAKING:

Israel has now started striking the Islamic regime’s anti-riot structures and forces dealing with crowd control.

These strikes will help the Iranian people topple the regime once Crown Prince  @PahlaviReza gives the signal to take to the streets.

Replacing the flag of the regime with the Lion and Sun flag on state administration building will be the first sign of the revolution.

Israel’s new targeted campaign against the Iranian regime’s key institutions responsible for anti-riot operations is the start of strategic shift to support the Iranian people’s uprising against decades of dictatorship.

Central to this effort are the new strikes on headquarters overseeing suppression forces, in particular the Special Units Headquarters of FARAJA (Law Enforcement Forces), which commands elite brigades like Amir al-Momenin for patrols and Imam Hossein for riot prevention.

These forces heavily rely on motorcycle units, armored pickups, and weapons from tear gas to Kalashnikovs and RPGs to crush protests.

Israel is now striking FARAJA Enforcement Command, across Iran but particularly hard in the Tehran region.

Similarly, Israeli airstrikes are now increasingly focused on Tharallah Headquarters (“God’s Blood”), the IRGC’s premier corps-level command for defending Greater Tehran.

Tharallah oversees all security bodies, including FARAJA, the Ministry of Intelligence and the Basij militias during crises.

It has historically directed brutal crackdowns on protests from the 1999 Student Protests to the Green Movement in 2009 and the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising.

Israeli jets are today striking Tharallah-linked facilities and IRGC command centers focused on internal security, including Basij training sites used for protest control.

These precision operations aim to dismantle the regime’s tools for stifling dissent. By degrading command structures, morale, and operational capacity of these anti-riot forces, Israel is creating openings for Iranians to take to the streets, seize institutions and pursue democratic transition.

The strikes are also demoralizing the regime’s security forces, with sign of a wave of defections and security forces refusing to follow orders given by their commanders.

Israel wants to empower the Iranian people and give them a path to overthrowing the regime.

Once Crown Prince  @PahlaviReza gives the command, millions of Iranians will take to the streets. It will be crucial that the Israeli Air Force will be there in that moment to provide them with the cover needed before they can seize enough weapons to arm themselves and send the Mullahs packing.

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) Mar 1, 2026

Lebanese Hezbollah terrorists announced they will continue “the path of resistance with steadfast will and a spirit of martyrdom, without fatigue or hesitation,” following the death of Ali Khamenei, said Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassim.

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) Mar 1, 2026