Day: January 21, 2026

#Counterintelligence  #Threats  #AI
U.S. Counterintelligence Threats: AI, Quantum, Supply Chain  gemini.google.com/share/461a…
As of January 2026, the U.S. counterintelligence (CI) landscape is undergoing a radical shift, driven by the “industrialization” of espionage through AI and the transition of great power competition into the digital and economic “gray zone.”1

Below is an analysis of the most significant threats and issues for the current year and the five-year horizon (2026–2031).

1. Immediate Threats: The 2026 Outlook

In the immediate term, the focus is on the weaponization of Agentic AI and the exploitation of digital debt.2

Industrialized Influence & Social Engineering: Adversaries (primarily China and Russia) have moved beyond manual “spear-phishing” to AI-driven, automated social engineering.3 Using stolen personal data (from past breaches like OPM), they can now deploy AI agents to engage in hyper-realistic, 24/7 psychological manipulation of U.S. government personnel and cleared contractors.

Identity-Centric Cyber Operations: 2026 is defined by “logging in” rather than “breaking in.” Adversaries are bypassing traditional perimeters by exploiting legitimate credentials, often targeting MFA (Multi-Factor Authentication) with AI-generated voice cloning (vishing) to impersonate IT staff or executives.4
Targeting “Agentic AI” Systems: As the U.S. government deploys its own AI agents for productivity, these systems are becoming targets. Threats like prompt injection and data poisoning are being used to hijack internal AI, turning them into unwitting “insider threats” that can exfiltrate data or grant unauthorized permissions.5
Telecommunications & Infrastructure Infiltration: High-profile campaigns like “Salt Typhoon” have shown that nation-states can reside undetected in commercial telecom networks for years.6 CI efforts this year are heavily focused on purging these actors from critical digital infrastructure.
2. Five-Year Perspective: Strategic Threats (2026–2031)

The long-term outlook focuses on structural vulnerabilities and the “collapse” of current security standards.

The “Quantum Countdown”

The five-year window is critical for Quantum Readiness.

Cryptographic Deprecation: With commercial quantum computers expected to break current asymmetric cryptography (RSA/ECC) by the early 2030s, the next five years (2026–2031) are a mandatory migration period.7

“Store Now, Decrypt Later”: A major CI concern is that adversaries are currently stealing encrypted data with the intent of decrypting it once quantum technology matures.8

Global Supply Chain & Economic Sabotage
Strategic Mineral Dependency: As the U.S. competes for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for defense and aerospace, CI must protect these supply chains from foreign sabotage and “economic statecraft” where adversaries use market dominance to choke U.S. military readiness.

Loss of Human “Tacit Knowledge”: As older workers retire and AI takes over manufacturing and logistics, CI experts warn of a “knowledge fragmentation” that could make critical systems more fragile and harder to recover after a sophisticated attack.9

Fragmented CI Governance
The “SECURE Act” Reforms: A major ongoing issue is the fragmentation of the U.S. CI system. Critics argue that the FBI and other agencies remain “reactive.” The next five years will determine if CI can successfully pivot from a “protective” posture to an “offensive” one—proactively disrupting and exploiting foreign intelligence entities before they strike.

Summary of Key Adversary Goals

AdversaryPrimary Focus (2026–2031)ChinaMass data collection for AI training; theft of military tech; pre-positioning in critical infrastructure (water, power) for conflict leverage.RussiaCognitive manipulation; undermining U.S. alliances (NATO); gray-zone sabotage to distract from the Ukraine conflict.IranCyber-enabled assassinations/kidnappings; targeting critical infrastructure to counter U.S. sanctions.North KoreaHigh-volume cryptocurrency theft to fund weapons programs; IT worker infiltration into U.S. tech companies.

Would you like me to look into the specific details of the SECURE Act or the current U.S. strategy for Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)?

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jan 21, 2026

U.S. Counterintelligence Threats: AI, Quantum, Supply Chain  gemini.google.com/share/461a…
As of January 2026, the U.S. counterintelligence (CI) landscape is undergoing a radical shift, driven by the “industrialization” of espionage through AI and the transition of great power competition into the digital and economic “gray zone.”1

Below is an analysis of the most significant threats and issues for the current year and the five-year horizon (2026–2031).

1. Immediate Threats: The 2026 Outlook

In the immediate term, the focus is on the weaponization of Agentic AI and the exploitation of digital debt.2

Industrialized Influence & Social Engineering: Adversaries (primarily China and Russia) have moved beyond manual “spear-phishing” to AI-driven, automated social engineering.3 Using stolen personal data (from past breaches like OPM), they can now deploy AI agents to engage in hyper-realistic, 24/7 psychological manipulation of U.S. government personnel and cleared contractors.

Identity-Centric Cyber Operations: 2026 is defined by “logging in” rather than “breaking in.” Adversaries are bypassing traditional perimeters by exploiting legitimate credentials, often targeting MFA (Multi-Factor Authentication) with AI-generated voice cloning (vishing) to impersonate IT staff or executives.4
Targeting “Agentic AI” Systems: As the U.S. government deploys its own AI agents for productivity, these systems are becoming targets. Threats like prompt injection and data poisoning are being used to hijack internal AI, turning them into unwitting “insider threats” that can exfiltrate data or grant unauthorized permissions.5
Telecommunications & Infrastructure Infiltration: High-profile campaigns like “Salt Typhoon” have shown that nation-states can reside undetected in commercial telecom networks for years.6 CI efforts this year are heavily focused on purging these actors from critical digital infrastructure.
2. Five-Year Perspective: Strategic Threats (2026–2031)

The long-term outlook focuses on structural vulnerabilities and the “collapse” of current security standards.

The “Quantum Countdown”

The five-year window is critical for Quantum Readiness.

Cryptographic Deprecation: With commercial quantum computers expected to break current asymmetric cryptography (RSA/ECC) by the early 2030s, the next five years (2026–2031) are a mandatory migration period.7

“Store Now, Decrypt Later”: A major CI concern is that adversaries are currently stealing encrypted data with the intent of decrypting it once quantum technology matures.8

Global Supply Chain & Economic Sabotage
Strategic Mineral Dependency: As the U.S. competes for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for defense and aerospace, CI must protect these supply chains from foreign sabotage and “economic statecraft” where adversaries use market dominance to choke U.S. military readiness.

Loss of Human “Tacit Knowledge”: As older workers retire and AI takes over manufacturing and logistics, CI experts warn of a “knowledge fragmentation” that could make critical systems more fragile and harder to recover after a sophisticated attack.9

Fragmented CI Governance
The “SECURE Act” Reforms: A major ongoing issue is the fragmentation of the U.S. CI system. Critics argue that the FBI and other agencies remain “reactive.” The next five years will determine if CI can successfully pivot from a “protective” posture to an “offensive” one—proactively disrupting and exploiting foreign intelligence entities before they strike.

Summary of Key Adversary Goals

AdversaryPrimary Focus (2026–2031)ChinaMass data collection for AI training; theft of military tech; pre-positioning in critical infrastructure (water, power) for conflict leverage.RussiaCognitive manipulation; undermining U.S. alliances (NATO); gray-zone sabotage to distract from the Ukraine conflict.IranCyber-enabled assassinations/kidnappings; targeting critical infrastructure to counter U.S. sanctions.North KoreaHigh-volume cryptocurrency theft to fund weapons programs; IT worker infiltration into U.S. tech companies.

Would you like me to look into the specific details of the SECURE Act or the current U.S. strategy for Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)?

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Jan 21, 2026