US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office he refused to rule out the possibility of the United States leaving NATO if the alliance doesn’t …
Day: January 16, 2026
Across Europe, thousands of exiled Iranians are demonstrating over the crackdown on protests in Iran. Many feel fear and paralysis as communication with loved ones back home is cut off. Anahita Safarnejad, who fled Iran seven years ago, struggles to balance her life in Berlin with the turmoil in her homeland. Mehregan Maroufi’s Persian cafe in Berlin offers solace to worried exiles. While most agree the current government must go, opinions differ on Iran’s future leadership.
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— Robert Morton (@Robert4787) Jan 17, 2026
2/ Read the full Iran Update, January 16, 2026: isw.pub/IranUpdate011626
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 17, 2026
NEW: The regime will likely tighten security around possible upcoming protest dates due to its fears of renewed unrest. It remains unclear whether the regime will securitize in targeted pulses around February 17 and Nowruz or sustain its current securitization for more than two months. Prolonged securitization would likely severely strain Iran’s economy and could risk exhausting security forces.
More Key Takeaways:
The Iranian regime appears to be concerned about Kurdish militancy in northwestern Iran, which may cause the regime to divert personnel and resources toward border security and constrain its protest-suppression capacity.There are reports of a new protest in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on January 16. Protest activity in Zahedan is unique and may not reflect a resurgence in protest activity across Iran, however.
There are additional reports that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have deployed to Iran within the “past few weeks” to support the regime’s crackdown on protests. Anti-regime media sources have cited similar reports during previous waves of protests in Iran.
The Syrian Ministry of Defense appears to have begun its assault to capture Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-held territory in the Deir Hafer salient in eastern Aleppo Province on January 16 amid recent US de-escalation attempts. This ground operation will likely remain limited to eastern Aleppo Province. (1/2)
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 17, 2026