Day: January 15, 2026

Exxon awards contract to acquire deepwater seismic offshore Trinidad and Tobago  reut.rs/4sJqOpS  reut.rs/4sJqOpS

— Reuters (@Reuters) Jan 16, 2026

US and Taiwan reach trade deal, with semiconductor chips and China in focus https://t.co/rjTjALU6F0 https://t.co/rjTjALU6F0

— Reuters (@Reuters) January 16, 2026

3/ Iranian Information Operation: The Iranian regime is conducting an information operation to portray itself and Iranian security forces as victims of “terrorism,” despite the regime’s violent crackdown on protests. The regime uses the narrative that protesters are “terrorists” to treat the public as a hostile force rather than as a population that has legitimate grievances.

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 16, 2026

2/ Economic Instability in Iran: Iranian leaders are reportedly moving their US currency reserves abroad, which indicates their lack of faith in Iran’s banking system and may indicate concerns about the future of the regime. Iranian leaders’ reported money transfers will reduce the amount of hard currency in Iran, which will in turn likely make Iran’s banking crisis more acute and inhibit the regime’s ability to solve its liquidity crisis.

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 16, 2026

The Iranian Regime’s Suppression of Protests: The regime’s pervasive securitization measures and violent crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed protest activity for now. CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January 15, which marks the second consecutive day that CTP-ISW has not recorded any protest activity in Iran.

The regime has used unprecedented brutality to quell the recent protests, and this brutality appears to have deterred some Iranians from continuing to demonstrate against the regime, at least for the time being.

The regime’s widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable, however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not address the underlying grievances that triggered this protest movement.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: The  Iranian regime’s extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests have likely suppressed the protest movement for now. The regime’s widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable,  however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not address the underlying grievances that triggered this protest movement.

Other Key Takeaways:
Iranian leaders are reportedly moving their US currency reserves abroad, which indicates their lack of faith in Iran’s banking system and may indicate concerns about the future of the regime. Iranian leaders’ reported money transfers will reduce the amount of hard currency in Iran, which will in turn likely make Iran’s banking crisis more acute and inhibit the regime’s ability to solve its liquidity crisis.

The  Iranian regime is conducting an information operation to portray itself and Iranian security forces as victims of “terrorism,” despite the regime’s violent crackdown on protests. The regime uses the narrative that protesters are “terrorists” to treat the public as a hostile force rather than as a population that has legitimate grievances.

Hezbollah may be hesitant to conduct any direct action against Israel or the  United States to support Iran, which could trigger a full-scale conflict and disrupt the group’s reconstitution efforts.

Divisions within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have reportedly impeded the year-long integration negotiations, threaten to prolong fighting between the SDF and the Syrian government in eastern Aleppo  Province and risk further destabilizing northeastern Syria.

The  Syrian government likely seeks to discourage Arab tribes in  SDF-controlled eastern Syria from mobilizing against the SDF in order to maintain stability in northeastern Syria as it fights the SDF in eastern Aleppo Province, which indicates that the Syrian government  seeks a limited operation in eastern Aleppo rather than a campaign to destroy the SDF.—  https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2011993510572908996

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 16, 2026

President Donald J. Trump meets with María Corina Machado of Venezuela in the Oval Office, during which she presented the President with her Nobel Peace Prize in recognition and honor.🕊️ pic.twitter.com/v7pYHjVNVO

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) January 16, 2026

Kyle Tucker has agreed to a $240 million, four-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to a person familiar with the deal, bolstering the franchise’s chance for a third consecutive World Series championship. https://t.co/TdV5ugeKs9

— The Associated Press (@AP) January 16, 2026