January 11, 2026 - October Surprise 2016 - octobersurprise2016.org

MORE: More Iranian security officers have died during the current protests than in any other protest wave in Iran. IRGC-affiliated media reported on January 11 that at least 114 regime security personnel from the Law Enforcement Command (LEC), Basij, and IRGC have been killed since the start of the protests on December 28.

The LEC is the regime’s main internal security service and is responsible for conducting ordinary policing activities and maintaining social control. The Basij is a paramilitary organization that largely focuses on disseminating regime propaganda, suppressing domestic dissent, and conducting civil defense activities.

The regime has also deployed the IRGC Ground Forces in some areas during the current wave of protests, although it is unclear whether all of the IRGC deaths reported by IRGC-affiliated media are deaths of IRGC Ground Forces members. Iranian media reported that Esfahan Province has the highest number of LEC and IRGC deaths at 30, followed by 9 Basij and IRGC deaths in Ghazvin Province.

Data indicates that the IRGC has mainly been active in western Iran, which is consistent with recent reports of IRGC Ground Forces deployments in Kermanshah and West Azerbaijan provinces. The actual death count for Iranian security personnel is likely higher than the number that IRGC-affiliated media reported, given that CTP-ISW has observed reports of security personnel casualties in areas, such as Tehran Province, that IRGC-affiliated media did not include in its death count. Over 70 regime security personnel died in the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement, which was the deadliest wave of protests until this wave.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Some Iranian regime officials have framed the ongoing protests as the next phase of the Israel-Iran War. The Iranian security establishment has repeatedly stressed since June 2025 that it believes that the Israel-Iran War is ongoing, despite the fact that the 12-day military conflict ended in June.

Other Key Takeaways:

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the United States against “miscalculations” on January 11 and threatened that Iran could target US military bases in the region or Israel if the United States attacks Iran. Ghalibaf’s threat is likely a response to recent Western media reports that US President Donald Trump is considering various options to intervene in the ongoing protests.

The regime may be labeling Iranian protesters as “terrorists” and connecting the ongoing protests to the United States and Israel as a tactic to motivate hesitant security officers to forcefully crack down on the protests.

More Iranian security officers have died during the current protests than in any other protest wave in Iran. IRGC-affiliated media reported on January 11 that at least 114 regime security personnel from the Law Enforcement Command (LEC), Basij, and IRGC have been killed since the start of the protests on December 28. The actual death count for Iranian security personnel is likely higher than the number that IRGC-affiliated media reported, given that CTP-ISW has observed reports of security personnel casualties in areas, such as Tehran Province, that IRGC-affiliated media did not include in its death count.

CTP-ISW recorded a lower rate of protest activity across Iran on January 11 compared to recent days. The lower rate of protests that CTP-ISW recorded is likely due to the regime’s nationwide internet shutdown and crackdown on the use of Starlink satellites.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2010513869542707408

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 12, 2026