MORE: ISW observed evidence to assess that Russian forces seized 4,831 square kilometers in Ukraine and regained roughly 473 square kilometers that Ukrainian forces had taken in Kursk Oblast in 2025. Russian gains in Ukraine amounted to 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Russian forces had seized 3,604 square kilometers in Ukraine in 2024.
Data from the Ukrainian General Staff shows that Russian forces suffered 416,570 casualties throughout 2025, for an average of 78 casualties per square kilometer seized in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast.
The average daily Russian rate of advance in 2025 was 13.24 square kilometers per day — higher than the daily average of 9.87 square kilometers per day in 2024. The Russian rate of advance has not been consistent throughout 2025, however. The Russian rate of advance was highest in November at 20.99 square kilometers per day, but this high came after one of the slowest months in 2025 — 8.8 square kilometers per day in October — and subsequently slowed to 15 square kilometers per day in December.Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Russian forces increased their average rate of advance in 2025 due to a new operational template supported by technological adaptations and a shift in assault tactics.
Other Key Takeaways:
Russian forces launched over 54,000 long-range drones and over 1,900 missiles against Ukraine in 2025.
The Russian military command largely prioritized efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts in 2025 but failed to accomplish these goals.
The orientation of Ukrainian defenses and fortified areas helped to hinder Russian advances in select areas in 2025.
Ukrainian forces appear to be undertaking their own BAI campaign that will likely parallel that of Russia.
The Kremlin is presenting alleged evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on the night of December 28 to 29, but the alleged evidence continues to be unpersuasive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin officially named 2026 the Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia in his annual New Year’s Eve address.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2006547817540497592
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 1, 2026
Month: December 2025
Cole leaves boyhood club Leicester after 18 years https://t.co/em3506EWSv https://t.co/em3506EWSv
— Reuters (@Reuters) January 1, 2026
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