December 31, 2025 - October Surprise 2016 - octobersurprise2016.org

Russian forces launched over 54,000 long-range drones and over 1,900 missiles against Ukraine in 2025. The sizes of Russia’s overnight strike packages have grown significantly throughout 2025. Prior to 2025, Russian forces launched their largest strike package against Ukraine on the night of November 16 to 17, 2024, with 210 drones and missiles. Russian forces in 2025 have launched 52 strike packages containing 210 or more projectiles. Russian forces launched their largest-ever strike package on September 6 to 7, 2025, containing 810 drones and 13 missiles. Russian forces have launched a total of 18 strike packages that each contain over 500 projectiles in 2025.

The Russian defense industrial base’s (DIB) ramped-up production in 2025 has allowed Russia to produce and launch missiles and drones at such high numbers and frequencies. Russian strikes during Fall and Winter 2025 have largely targeted Ukraine’s energy grid with devastating effects. Russian forces have also significantly increased their strikes against Ukrainian railway infrastructure to impede Ukrainian logistics.

Russian forces have used a series of technological adaptations to their missiles and drones to achieve these effects in 2025, including integrated cameras and radio control capabilities on Russian Shahed-type drones that have allowed Russian forces to strike moving targets such as locomotives.

Russia has also leaned on its partners and allies to increase production, importing critical components from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and relying on North Korea for KN-23 missiles and labor to work at Russia’s Shahed-producing factory in the Republic of Tatarstan.[Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar)NEW: Russian forces increased their average rate of advance in 2025 due to a new operational template supported by technological adaptations and a shift in assault tactics.

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian forces launched over 54,000 long-range drones and over 1,900 missiles against Ukraine in 2025.

The Russian military command largely prioritized efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts in 2025 but failed to accomplish these goals.

The orientation of Ukrainian defenses and fortified areas helped to hinder Russian advances in select areas in 2025.

Ukrainian forces appear to be undertaking their own BAI campaign that will likely parallel that of Russia.

The Kremlin is presenting alleged evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on the night of December 28 to 29, but the alleged evidence continues to be unpersuasive.

Russian President Vladimir Putin officially named 2026 the Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia in his annual New Year’s Eve address.— https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2006547817540497592

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) Jan 1, 2026