Day: January 16, 2025

The investigation into the AZAL flight crash near Aktau continues, with new “leaks” emerging. Recently, the Russian Telegram channel BAZA published what it claims to be a transcript from the cockpit voice recorder—communications between the pilots of the ill-fated aircraft and ground control.

Leaving aside questions about the source of the leak, its credibility, and who shared such sensational data with BAZA so soon after the black box recordings were sent to Kazakhstan, one thing is clear: much of the transcript requires expert knowledge to interpret. However, let’s focus on some key aspects.

The published transcript begins at 7:36:57 Moscow time. The crew conducts routine communications with air traffic controllers in Grozny. At 8:16, the crew reports to the controller: “Grozny, controls have failed. Bird strike in the cockpit… uh, bird strike, and two seats in the cockpit exploded.” Subsequent communications shift to the Rostov Air Traffic Control Center, discussing emergency landing options: Mineralnye Vody, Makhachkala, a return to Baku, and the need for fire and medical services at the landing site due to hydraulic failure. At 8:52:46, the crew informs Rostov Control: “Here’s the situation. Oxygen is running out in the passenger cabin. It seems the oxygen cylinder exploded. And there’s a smell of fuel. Some passengers… uh, are losing consciousness.”

This transcript suggests the crew themselves first raised the theories of a “bird strike” and an “oxygen cylinder explosion.” Russian authorities, including Rosaviatsia, subsequently propagated these explanations. It is even possible the crew’s communications were leaked to emphasize: “Look, the bird strike and oxygen cylinder theory wasn’t fabricated—it came from the pilots!” Moreover, the decision to fly to Aktau was made by the crew themselves.

But let’s set aside speculation, such as what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov might have meant during his press conference when he remarked that the black box data didn’t confirm much of what was reported in the media. The focus here is this: if the transcript publication was an attempt to deflect responsibility, it’s a weak one. The transcript reinforces that a crime was committed in Russian airspace that morning.

The data from the cockpit voice recorder shows that neither in Grozny nor in Rostov did anyone—anyone—warn the pilots that ground-based systems were actively responding to an attack by Ukrainian drones, that navigation and GPS were disabled, and, most critically and alarmingly, that air defense systems were operational. The crew was not warned. Despite the disabled navigation system, the pilots attempted to land in Grozny, unaware of the mortal danger in the skies.

To reiterate: under international aviation safety protocols, when navigation systems are disabled, and air defenses are operational—whether due to drone attacks or military drills—local authorities are required to “close the airspace,” and controllers must inform pilots. Pilots would then either divert to an alternate airport or return to the departure airport, with the final decision resting with the captain. ICAO (the International Civil Aviation Organization) has long established these protocols, which are strictly followed in civilized countries. But in Russia, which includes Chechnya, as demonstrated here, neither Grozny controllers nor the Rostov Air Traffic Control Center warned the AZAL crew of the danger—despite their obligation to do so. Even after the aircraft was struck by air defense missiles, the pilots were not informed of the ongoing air defense activity.

Yes, the bird strike and oxygen cylinder theories were initially raised by the crew. But what else could the pilots, sitting in a metal “cigar” in the sky, have imagined? An alien invasion? A collision with a UFO? For a civilian pilot, the idea that a scheduled flight to a civilian airport could be targeted by an air defense missile is beyond conceivable. Certain events simply should not happen in a normal, civilized country. Meanwhile, representatives of Rosaviatsia—by the time they promoted these theories—already knew, or were required to know, that the aircraft had been struck by an air defense missile. Most likely, these were missiles from the Pantsir missile systems recently deployed in Chechnya. In other words, they deliberately lied—let’s call it what it is.

The question remains: what were they counting on? That no one would discover the aircraft was hit by an air defense missile? Or that the authorities in Kazakhstan and, above all, Azerbaijan would accept this brazen lie and not uncover the true cause of the crash?

Thus, the released transcripts only further validate Azerbaijan’s justified demands to Russia: take responsibility for the crash, issue an apology, conduct a transparent investigation, punish those responsible, and compensate the families of the victims and survivors. Azerbaijan will not back down from these demands.