The government of Azerbaijan has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030 and 40% by 2050.
As the host of COP29, Baku has emphasized this target as a cornerstone of its climate change strategy, with details available on the official COP29 website, cop29.az. However, for a nation heavily reliant on oil and gas production, the feasibility of these ambitious goals is under scrutiny.
According to the State Statistics Committee, Azerbaijan emitted 59 million tons of carbon equivalent in 2022—a 1.7% increase from the previous year. The energy sector is responsible for 92% of these emissions, highlighting the significant environmental impact of the country’s oil and gas industries compared to other sectors like transportation.
SOCAR’s pledge vs. reality
SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, joined the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC) at COP28, alongside over 50 international firms. The company pledged to eliminate routine flaring by 2030, cut carbon emissions in extraction by 30%, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, data from SOCAR’s Sustainable Development 2023 report raises doubts about its ability to meet these targets.
In 2022, SOCAR operations emitted 8.36 million tons of greenhouse gases—an increase from 7.8 million tons the previous year. Key contributors include “Azneft” Production Union, the Heydar Aliyev Oil Refinery, and other facilities like the Methanol and Urea Plants.
Mirvari Kahramanli, head of the Organization for the Protection of Oil Workers’ Rights, remains skeptical. “Despite SOCAR’s commitments, the public sees little evidence of reduced emissions. Oil production will naturally decline by 2050, but I doubt emissions will reach net zero,” she told Meydan TV.
Kahramanli also criticized SOCAR’s environmental policies, noting a lack of transparency and meaningful progress. “SOCAR’s environmental track record is poor. Videos I’ve posted show the ongoing environmental damage caused by its operations,” she added.
Weak enforcement and budget cuts
Despite fines levied by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, enforcement remains weak. SOCAR and its subsidiaries reportedly pay fines using state budget funds rather than implementing significant waste reduction measures.
In 2022, SOCAR’s oil and gas operations were fined 622,642 AZN for environmental violations, and in 2023, these fines totaled 16,500 AZN. Meanwhile, the company reduced its environmental protection budget from 34 million AZN in 2022 to just 15 million in 2023—a 2.2-fold decrease.
Baku’s air pollution problem
Frequent air quality issues, particularly in Baku, have further fueled public concern. A recent incident at the Heydar Aliyev Oil Refinery caused a strong odor in the city, with the company attributing it to gas flaring to prevent accidents. However, experts argue that inadequate maintenance of gas capture systems exacerbates air pollution, releasing harmful gases directly into the atmosphere.
Reconstruction of the refinery, aimed at reducing emissions, has been ongoing since 2017 but remains incomplete. Emissions from the facility increased by 26% in 2022 compared to the previous year, underscoring the slow progress. The modernization project, with a budget of $2.2 billion, is critical to aligning SOCAR’s operations with international standards, yet its completion date remains uncertain.
Can Azerbaijan meet its climate goals?
Azerbaijan’s reliance on oil and gas poses significant hurdles to achieving its emission reduction targets. While SOCAR’s commitments reflect international pressure to decarbonize, critics question the company’s capacity to deliver meaningful results.
For Azerbaijan to make tangible progress, experts emphasize the need for stronger enforcement of environmental regulations, greater transparency from SOCAR, and accelerated modernization of key infrastructure. Without these measures, the country’s ambitious climate goals may remain out of reach.
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