Day: November 18, 2024

This week on The Security Podcast, National Security News Editor, Sean Rayment and Deputy-Editor Linda van Tilburg were joined by Admiral Mike Hewitt, a U.S. Navy veteran who served for 31 years. Admiral Hewitt, also the co-founder and CEO of IP3, an international energy and security company, has extensive experience in Ukraine.

Adm Mike argues that President-elect Trump’s election could fill a leadership vacuum in Western Europe and that he could bring an earlier end to the war in Ukraine. Admiral Hewitt also discusses the potential implications of Trump’s presidency for NATO, what his peace strategy for Ukraine is likely to be, and how young Ukrainians might favour ceding territory in exchange for peace. He says a peace agreement is complex, because it is intertwined with larger geopolitical dynamics involving  China, Iran and Noth Korea.

• Trump will realign NATO priorities and hold member nations accountable to 2% of GDP on defence spending.
• Sustainable peace in Ukraine more likely with Trump Presidency than Biden administration.
• Ceasefire will be prioritised in Trump peace strategy.
• Concerns about Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard are unfounded.
• Nato’s Article 5 is not a deterrent.
• Putin likely to undermine any peace agreement, there needs to be enforceable checks.
• US and NATO will have to invest in Ukraine’s long term security.
• In a peace agreement, Ukraine and the West is not only dealing with Putin, Xi and Kim Jong-un and the radical mullahs of Iran will also have to be considered. 

 Key takeaways:

Chapters

• 0:00 NATO’s Future Under Trump
• 02:52Ukraine’s Concerns and Peace Strategies
• 04:48 Trump’s peace plans for Ukraine 
• 07:55 Trump’s security and intelligence appointments and their Impact
• 11:38 Public Sentiment in Ukraine Regarding Peace
• 13:25 Putin will violate any peace agreement 
• 16:03 The Role of NATO in Peace Negotiations
• 17:22 Trump has dealt with Putin before
• 19:00 Financial Implications for US and NATO of Peace Agreements
• 21:12 Russian Casualties and Conflict Sustainability
• 24:01 The Broader Geopolitical Context

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