April, 2024 - October Surprise 2016 - octobersurprise2016.org

Welcome to SpyWeek, our weekly newsletter, where we look at news from the intersection of intelligence, foreign policy, and military operations.

Johnson did a 180 on Ukraine after intense briefings from Bill Burns and other intel officials, but his son’s enrollment at Annapolis may have been a factor.

Inside Job: Since White House decisions turn on “the perception of the consequences of actions,” Henry Kissinger once observed, “the CIA assessment can almost amount to a policy recommendation.”

So it was in the CIA briefings Speaker Mike Johnson received about the course of the war in Ukraine and its implications for Europe and the global order, which may go down as among the most consequential ever given to a congressional leader. Except in Johnson’s case, the intelligence was about the devastating implications of his failure to act.

Intelligence briefings played a significant role in getting Johnson to say “yes” to a long-delayed $61 billion aid package for war-battered Ukraine. The measure passed the House in a rare bipartisan vote on April 20. The Senate approved the bill on Tuesday, and President Biden swiftly signed it into law on Wednesday.

“I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we’ve gotten,” Johnson said in a subtle rebuke to Donald Trump, who heaped scorn on U.S. intelligence professionals during his administration. The speaker found the intelligence so compelling that he repeatedly urged the Republican holdouts, the same members who regularly rail against the “deep state,” to go to the secure room at the Capitol and see it for themselves, The New York Times reported.

CIA Director Bill Burns put on a full-court press to sway the inexperienced House speaker. Burns gave Johnson a private, classified briefing that left a “lasting impression,” CNN reported. The CIA even hosted Johnson’s staff at Langley on March 29. The speaker said he came to feel that “the fate of Western democracy was on his shoulders.”

Johnson ran through what he took from his briefings. “I believe [Chinese President] Xi and Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil,” he said. “I think they’re in coordination on this. I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Baltics next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies.”

Johnson sounded like he was channeling Burns, who also says Putin is already eyeing his next conquest. In a recent public talk at the George W. Bush Center in Texas, Burns said the Baltics may be Putin’s next stop. “I think if I were in leadership in the Baltic states right now, history tells me I should be very concerned,” Burns said. “Whether that takes the form of an overt conventional attack or other ways of trying to undermine those countries and NATO’s integrity as well.” Burns also pointed to Moldova, where he said the CIA has seen evidence of Russian security services meddling in a recent election.

Johnson’s Damascene conversion from a backbencher who, in September, opposed $300 million aid for Ukraine, to a House leader who risked his speakership over it stunned Washington.

M	T	W	T	F	S	S
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
8	9	10	11	12	13	14
15	16	17	18	19	20	21
22	23	24	25	26	27	28
29	30